World Series 2023 forecast

Perhaps the third time will be the charm for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Today brings the final installment of my third annual set of season predictions. I envisioned the Dodgers making the World Series in 2021 and 2022 — and I’m sticking with them in 2023.

The previous forecasts didn’t work out so well. I had the Chicago White Sox defeating the Dodgers in the World Series two years ago, and Los Angeles beating the Tampa Bay Rays last year.

The actual World Series results, as you’ll recall, were the Atlanta Braves triumphing over the Houston Astros in 2021 and the Astros eliminating the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022.

Oh, well.

That brings us to 2023. I began by issuing a series of predictions for the six divisions:

Then I simulated October’s postseason action. I ran each playoff series 1,000 times, based on the regular-season team scores projected by my system. (Click here for a refresher course on TS.) The team that won the majority of my simulations advanced to the next round.

The Dodgers again emerged from this process as the champions of the National League, while the Astros retained their grip on the American League.

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I simulated the World Series 10,000 times, expanding my normal process by 10. The results were bound to be close, given the fact that the projected team scores for the two clubs are virtually identical:

  • Los Angeles, TS 64.504

  • Houston, TS 64.358

The Dodgers’ thin margin proved to be the difference when I ran the simulations. Los Angeles won 5,102 of the series, compared to 4,898 for Houston.

That’s essentially a 51-49 split, only slightly better than a coin flip. But it’s good enough to install the Dodgers as my favorites to walk away with the World Series trophy at the end of the upcoming season.

Not a bad forecast for a team that has been overshadowed all winter by the uninhibited spending habits of its southern neighbor, the San Diego Padres. The biggest question is whether my 2023 forecast will pan out better than its two predecessors.

The Dodgers can only hope that it does.

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